{
  "schema": "h10.bounty-economics.sensitivity.output.v1",
  "role": "one-factor-attempt-sensitivity",
  "doesNotReplace": "h10.bounty-economics.card.v1",
  "formula": {
    "id": "forge-f01-attempt-sensitivity-2026-09-22",
    "expression": "expectedNet = payout * acceptanceProbability - (inputTokens + outputTokens priced per million)",
    "variation": "0.5",
    "stagedEv": "not this object",
    "cardSchema": "h10.bounty-economics.card.v1",
    "cardFormula": "sol-pro-staged-ev-2026-09-12"
  },
  "source": {
    "repository": "epistemedeus/pilot-heavy-relay",
    "visibility": "private",
    "branch": "codex/forge-f01-20260922",
    "commit": "4ceca4fd699a415e2f630a9c293a195dff15ad40",
    "path": "experiments/forge-20260922/F01/project/"
  },
  "usage": {
    "cli": "node experiments/bounty-economics-20260912/bin/bounty-economics.mjs sensitivity --input FILE [--out DIR]",
    "inputSchemas": [
      "h10.bounty-economics.sensitivity.input.v1",
      "urn:bounty-economics-explorer:export:v1"
    ],
    "outputSchema": "h10.bounty-economics.sensitivity.output.v1",
    "contract": "experiments/bounty-economics-20260912/SENSITIVITY-CONTRACT.json",
    "doesNotReplace": "h10.bounty-economics.card.v1"
  },
  "inputSchema": "h10.bounty-economics.sensitivity.input.v1",
  "label": "synthetic",
  "currency": "USD",
  "variation": "0.5",
  "modeled": true,
  "actualEarnings": null,
  "observedDemand": false,
  "payment": false,
  "settlementImplied": false,
  "currencyParity": false,
  "rating": null,
  "independentlyVerifiedByThisPack": false,
  "explorerInputs": {
    "payoutUsd": 500,
    "inputTokens": 120000,
    "outputTokens": 8000,
    "inputPricePerMillionUsd": 3,
    "outputPricePerMillionUsd": 15,
    "acceptanceProbability": 0.6,
    "reviewerMinutes": 45
  },
  "inputs": {
    "payout": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "500"
    },
    "inputTokens": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "120000"
    },
    "outputTokens": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "8000"
    },
    "inputPricePerMillion": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "3"
    },
    "outputPricePerMillion": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "15"
    },
    "acceptanceProbability": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "0.6"
    },
    "reviewerMinutes": {
      "kind": "synthetic",
      "value": "45"
    }
  },
  "result": {
    "tokenCost": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "0.48",
      "unit": "USD",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "$0.48"
    },
    "expectedGross": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "300",
      "unit": "USD",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "$300.00"
    },
    "expectedNet": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "299.52",
      "unit": "USD",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "+$299.52"
    },
    "breakEvenPayout": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "0.8",
      "unit": "USD",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "$0.80",
      "reachable": true
    },
    "minutesPerExpectedAcceptance": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "75",
      "unit": "minute",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "75 min",
      "monetized": false
    },
    "reviewerMinutes": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "45",
      "unit": "minute",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "45 min",
      "monetized": false
    },
    "acceptanceProbability": {
      "kind": "derived",
      "value": "0.6",
      "unit": "probability",
      "status": "estimated",
      "representation": "decimal",
      "exactDecimal": false,
      "verified": false,
      "display": "60%"
    },
    "zeroPriceWarning": false,
    "overflowWarning": false
  },
  "sensitivities": [
    {
      "field": "payoutUsd",
      "varyLabel": "Payout",
      "metric": "Expected net reward",
      "base": {
        "kind": "derived",
        "value": "500",
        "unit": "USD",
        "status": "estimated",
        "representation": "decimal",
        "exactDecimal": false,
        "verified": false,
        "display": "500"
      },
      "varyRange": {
        "low": "250",
        "high": "750",
        "unit": "USD"
      },
      "range": {
        "low": "149.52",
        "high": "449.52",
        "unit": "USD",
        "lowDisplay": "$149.52",
        "highDisplay": "$449.52"
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "acceptanceProbability",
      "varyLabel": "Acceptance probability",
      "metric": "Expected net reward",
      "base": {
        "kind": "derived",
        "value": "0.6",
        "unit": "probability",
        "status": "estimated",
        "representation": "decimal",
        "exactDecimal": false,
        "verified": false,
        "display": "0.6"
      },
      "varyRange": {
        "low": "0.3",
        "high": "0.9",
        "unit": "probability"
      },
      "range": {
        "low": "149.52",
        "high": "449.52",
        "unit": "USD",
        "lowDisplay": "$149.52",
        "highDisplay": "$449.52"
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "inputPricePerMillionUsd",
      "varyLabel": "Input price",
      "metric": "Token cost",
      "base": {
        "kind": "derived",
        "value": "3",
        "unit": "USD/1e6 tokens",
        "status": "estimated",
        "representation": "decimal",
        "exactDecimal": false,
        "verified": false,
        "display": "3"
      },
      "varyRange": {
        "low": "1.5",
        "high": "4.5",
        "unit": "USD/1e6 tokens"
      },
      "range": {
        "low": "0.3",
        "high": "0.66",
        "unit": "USD",
        "lowDisplay": "$0.30",
        "highDisplay": "$0.66"
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "outputPricePerMillionUsd",
      "varyLabel": "Output price",
      "metric": "Token cost",
      "base": {
        "kind": "derived",
        "value": "15",
        "unit": "USD/1e6 tokens",
        "status": "estimated",
        "representation": "decimal",
        "exactDecimal": false,
        "verified": false,
        "display": "15"
      },
      "varyRange": {
        "low": "7.5",
        "high": "22.5",
        "unit": "USD/1e6 tokens"
      },
      "range": {
        "low": "0.42",
        "high": "0.54",
        "unit": "USD",
        "lowDisplay": "$0.42",
        "highDisplay": "$0.54"
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "inputTokens",
      "varyLabel": "Input tokens",
      "metric": "Token cost",
      "base": {
        "kind": "derived",
        "value": "120000",
        "unit": "token",
        "status": "estimated",
        "representation": "decimal",
        "exactDecimal": false,
        "verified": false,
        "display": "120,000"
      },
      "varyRange": {
        "low": "60000",
        "high": "180000",
        "unit": "token"
      },
      "range": {
        "low": "0.3",
        "high": "0.66",
        "unit": "USD",
        "lowDisplay": "$0.30",
        "highDisplay": "$0.66"
      }
    },
    {
      "field": "outputTokens",
      "varyLabel": "Output tokens",
      "metric": "Token cost",
      "base": {
        "kind": "derived",
        "value": "8000",
        "unit": "token",
        "status": "estimated",
        "representation": "decimal",
        "exactDecimal": false,
        "verified": false,
        "display": "8,000"
      },
      "varyRange": {
        "low": "4000",
        "high": "12000",
        "unit": "token"
      },
      "range": {
        "low": "0.42",
        "high": "0.54",
        "unit": "USD",
        "lowDisplay": "$0.42",
        "highDisplay": "$0.54"
      }
    }
  ],
  "notes": [
    "Modeled attempt sensitivity. Not actual earnings.",
    "Does not replace h10.bounty-economics.card.v1 staged wallet EV (pA pD pQ pS and stage costs).",
    "A single acceptance probability is not pA, pD, pQ, or pS. Missing stages stay unknown on the card.",
    "Unknown is not zero.",
    "Token prices are caller-supplied. This pack has no vendor price catalog.",
    "No currency conversion and no settlement instruction.",
    "Reviewer minutes are not converted into money.",
    "A zero token price with positive tokens is a promotional-credit warning; modeled net is then an overestimate.",
    "Overflow is unknown plus overflowWarning, never Infinity and never a substituted zero.",
    "Not paid demand, not a listing, and not a review."
  ]
}