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      "reason": "G* needs pA,pD,pQ,pS,f,F,C0-C3; current G is not required",
      "kind": "unknown",
      "value": null,
      "unit": "USDC",
      "status": "missing",
      "asOf": "2026-09-12T12:16:52.049Z",
      "source": null,
      "verified": false
    },
    "breakEvenAwardProbability": {
      "reason": "pA* needs pD,pQ,pS,W,C0,C1,C2,C3",
      "kind": "unknown",
      "value": null,
      "unit": "probability",
      "status": "missing",
      "asOf": "2026-09-12T12:16:52.049Z",
      "source": null,
      "verified": false
    },
    "realizedProfit": {
      "reason": "realized profit requires observed award+delivery+settlement, not claimed status",
      "kind": "unknown",
      "value": null,
      "unit": "USDC",
      "status": "missing",
      "asOf": "2026-09-12T12:16:52.049Z",
      "source": null,
      "verified": false
    },
    "extrema": null,
    "decisionCostPlane": null,
    "currency": "USDC"
  },
  "evidence": {
    "stages": {
      "advertised": {
        "stage": "advertised",
        "kind": "claimed_platform",
        "status": "estimated",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": {
          "url": "https://moltjobs.io/jobs/39591a8f-2f44-4814-a4c9-63f2d2dca348",
          "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:49:05.214Z"
        },
        "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:49:05.214Z",
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      },
      "bid": {
        "stage": "bid",
        "kind": "operator_supplied",
        "status": "estimated",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": "operator-case:five-same-buyer-bids",
        "asOf": "2026-09-12",
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      },
      "awarded": {
        "stage": "awarded",
        "kind": "operator_supplied",
        "status": "estimated",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": "operator-case:two-accepted-not-calibrated-pA",
        "asOf": "2026-09-12",
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      },
      "delivered": {
        "stage": "delivered",
        "kind": "operator_supplied",
        "status": "estimated",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": {
          "url": "https://neomorphic.io/labs/proof-of-execution/",
          "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:34:13.918Z"
        },
        "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:34:13.918Z",
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      },
      "approved": {
        "stage": "approved",
        "kind": "claimed_platform",
        "status": "estimated",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": {
          "url": "https://moltjobs.io/jobs/565f1174-0cfe-44a9-a1bb-0ce1f6a64527",
          "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:34:30.710Z"
        },
        "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:34:30.710Z",
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      },
      "settled": {
        "stage": "settled",
        "kind": "operator_supplied",
        "status": "estimated",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": {
          "path": "overview/research/steady-agent-experiments-20260912/evidence/moltjobs-settlement.json",
          "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:49:05.214Z"
        },
        "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:49:05.214Z",
        "source": null,
        "notes": "external Root receipts; this pack does not verify chain",
        "verified": false
      },
      "liquid": {
        "stage": "liquid",
        "kind": "unknown",
        "status": "missing",
        "amount": null,
        "evidence": null,
        "asOf": "2026-09-12T10:49:05.214Z",
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      }
    },
    "formula": "advertised → bid → awarded → delivered → approved → settled → liquid",
    "notes": [
      "Each stage needs its own evidence link. A listing URL is advertised, not settled.",
      "Unknown settlement is not probability 1. Untested withdrawal is not liquid."
    ]
  },
  "settlement": {
    "observedReceipts": {
      "kind": "unknown",
      "amount": {
        "kind": "unknown",
        "value": null,
        "unit": "USDC",
        "status": "missing",
        "asOf": "2026-09-12T12:16:52.049Z",
        "basis": null,
        "source": null,
        "notes": null,
        "verified": false
      },
      "evidence": null,
      "rail": null,
      "notes": "external Root receipts are not this pack verifying the chain",
      "verified": false
    },
    "claimedPlatformStatus": {
      "kind": "operator_supplied",
      "status": "COMPLETED_manual_approve_two_jobs",
      "amount": null,
      "basis": null,
      "notes": null,
      "verified": false
    },
    "independentlyVerifiedByThisPack": false,
    "notes": [
      "Escrow or settled observed receipts require pack-local evidence. A platform status string is claimed, not observed.",
      "Operator-supplied paid assertions stay operator_supplied. This pack never labels them verified."
    ]
  },
  "amendment": {
    "distance": "unknown",
    "assetFit": "unknown",
    "evidenceOverlap": "unknown",
    "freshness": "unknown",
    "amendmentRange": "unknown",
    "holdSupportDuties": "keep public URLs live through 2026-10-12T10:34:31Z",
    "notes": null,
    "verified": false
  },
  "cohort": {
    "present": true,
    "wins": 2,
    "bids": 5,
    "sameBuyer": true,
    "selectedSample": true,
    "notCalibratedPA": true,
    "date": "2026-09",
    "population": "same-buyer MoltJobs guide jobs",
    "limitation": "tiny selected samples are not calibrated award probabilities",
    "sampleSize": 5,
    "buyerRouteCohort": "same-buyer MoltJobs guide jobs",
    "calibrationDate": "2026-09"
  },
  "ratings": {
    "evidence_quality": {
      "dimension": "evidence_quality",
      "level": "moderate",
      "basis": "Paid pair 39591a8f + 565f1174. Gross 3.00 / net 2.85 cited from Pilot 56122f4 settlement evidence. This pack does not verify chain. 475358e1/c6460715 are other research, not the paid pair.",
      "notes": null,
      "starScore": null,
      "platformRank": null,
      "notARanking": true,
      "composite": false
    },
    "settlement_reliability": {
      "dimension": "settlement_reliability",
      "level": "unknown",
      "basis": "settlement reliability unknown: no pack-local observed receipt",
      "notes": null,
      "starScore": null,
      "platformRank": null,
      "notARanking": true,
      "composite": false
    },
    "estimated_economics": {
      "dimension": "estimated_economics",
      "level": "unknown",
      "basis": "point EV suppressed because a critical stage is unknown",
      "notes": null,
      "starScore": null,
      "platformRank": null,
      "notARanking": true,
      "composite": false
    },
    "discovery_friction": {
      "dimension": "discovery_friction",
      "level": "moderate",
      "basis": "720h hold through 2026-10-12T10:34:31Z. Withdrawal not tested.",
      "notes": null,
      "starScore": null,
      "platformRank": null,
      "notARanking": true,
      "composite": false
    },
    "notes": [
      "Four independent ordinals. No composite, no stars, no platform ranking.",
      "Settlement reliability stays unknown unless this pack has observed receipts."
    ]
  },
  "pins": {
    "cw04": {
      "commit": "ec9695b2a851a879bfd1efc22d4c8372b314677e",
      "path": "experiments/codex-window/cw04-bounty-experiences",
      "status": "interface_pinned_unavailable",
      "rewrittenHere": false
    },
    "h8": {
      "commit": "4d96afc",
      "path": "experiments/steady-agent-opportunities-20260912",
      "status": "present_hash_mismatch",
      "amendedHere": false,
      "imported": false
    }
  },
  "honesty": [
    "Unknown is not zero.",
    "Operator-supplied and claimed-platform figures are not verified.",
    "Net wallet W is after fees and before stage costs; EV is expected profit under staged conditionals.",
    "A 2/5 same-buyer selected sample is a cohort description, not calibrated pA.",
    "Content quality as a cause of loss is a hypothesis, not a finding of this pack."
  ],
  "independentlyVerifiedByThisPack": false,
  "readOnly": true,
  "limitations": [
    "Not a current listing to bid. Original tokens unknown. 2/5 is not pA.",
    "Root receipts ≠ this pack verifying chain. Liquidity unknown.",
    "point EV suppressed because a critical stage is unknown; the scenario object remains",
    "This prototype does not fetch, bid, pay, or settle.",
    "Original tokens stay unknown unless a measured meter exists. An all-Grok range is not observed Pilot cost."
  ],
  "decisionHinge": {
    "field": "pA",
    "reversesDecision": "unknown",
    "reason": "point EV suppressed; hinge is missing pA"
  }
}